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A detailed preview of the New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech football game will look at team performance, key player stats, plus betting lines to come up with a prediction. The New Mexico State Aggies will play host to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in a very crucial Conference USA game on November 21, 2024, from inside Aggie Memorial Stadium.
One of the teams represents misfortune while another has found renewed life offensively; however, it is New Mexico State who cannot seem to find their groove following a trying season. Let’s see if the Aggies’ are able to pull off an upset or this match turns into domination through some offensive firepower from the Bulldogs.
Breaking down the Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Game with the real deep dive of team stats, standout players, “Expert” betting trends to help you make the best bet possible Both teams face a different level of adversity in this, with Louisiana Tech working to keep its newfound momentum up, and keep New Mexico State from breaking a five-game skid. The game features essential statistics, advantages from the analytics, and “expert opinions” relating to the potential result.
Team Performance Overview
New Mexico State’s Struggles
The Aggies come into this game with a 1-5 record, and they have not won against FBS teams. Their scoring offense is 122nd nationally out of 128 FBS teams, at just 18.5 points per game, while their scoring defense sits at 38.2 points allowed per game, one of the worst in Conference USA. Recent results have further accentuated this fact, with the most ominous being that of Jacksonville State, which beat them 54–13.
New Mexico State’s one win came against Southeast Missouri State, an FCS opponent. They are especially promising on the ground, where Seth McGowan has helped them average 160 yards per game. But their passing attack is 131st in passing success rate, shared between Parker Awad and Santino Marucci, which does not do much to round out their offense.
Louisiana Tech’s Offensive Surge
The Bulldogs are 3-5 but have discovered an offense going down the stretch, particularly coming off of a big 48-21 victory over Middle Tennessee. Freshman quarterback Evan Bullock has truly opened up their attack by completing 70.6% of his passes for 557 yards and six scores.
That defense gives up just 21.6 points per game͏ it’s the second best in Conference USA. Louisiana Tech has an elite run defense. They allow just 93 yards per game and rank 14th best in the nation. But it will be their passing offense that gets tested by New Mexico State. The Aggies, though poor overall on defense, do well here allowing a Passing Success Rate that ranks 40th nationally. The Bulldogs’ ability to keep their offensive momentum going will matter most.
Key Player Matchups
Evan Bullock vs. New Mexico State’s Secondary
Louisiana Tech’s Evan Bullock has been a game-changer throwing five touchdowns against Middle Tennessee. His 0.17 EPA per dropback shows his efficiency, but it’s a number the New Mexico State’s secondary could challenge. Players such as Josiah Cox, with two interceptions, are to try and break Bullock’s rhythm.
The Aggies pass defense gives up 210 yards per game so the holes should be there for Bullock to take advantage. Louisiana Tech may stretch the field with receivers as Tru Edwards who has 335 yards. If Bullock can just stay poised, it tips over to being a very strong passing game for the Bulldogs against New Mexico State’s defense.
Seth McGowan vs. Louisiana Tech’s Run Defense
Seth McGowan of New Mexico State puts up 5.4 yards every time he carries the ball, totaling 392 yards with two touchdowns. The run defense of Louisiana Tech is led by Kolbe Fields who has recorded 5.5 tackles for loss so far this season and they are allowing just 2.91 yards per carry.
This matchup will determine if the Aggies can control the clock. If McGowan and RB Mike Washington can spot holes, then as a result, New Mexico State can execute time-consuming drives and keep Louisiana Tech’s dynamic offense on the sideline. However, getting work done against the Bulldogs’ defensive front will not be easy by any means-they sit 15th nationally in EPA per rush allowed. The Aggies need to avoid an early deficit-so that they can utilize their running game.
Spread Analysis
Ground Game Advantage: Aggies’ Power vs. Bulldogs’ Finesse
Tech’s got to be the 11.5-point favorite just by reading up on their game and defensive capability over the Aggies. They have posted a 3-2 spread mark this season, although they came through with a clipboard in each of their latest two outings as favorites.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State flounders to 1-5 against the spread and has not been able to bring home the bacon in their last five contests. The Aggies’ home field advantage at Aggie Memorial Stadium might help them keep the game closer. Last season, they covered as underdogs to Louisiana Tech in a 27-24 loss. Bettors considering New Mexico State should at least consider their second-half scoring prowess, as they are averaging 18.5 at home.
Over/Under Insights
The over under is set at 49.5 with analysts divided on which way it will go. Louisiana Tech has exploded offensively recently so there is a chance that it could be a high scoring game but its defense could choke New Mexico State’s offense. The Aggies’ last three out of four contests have landed on the over due to defensive lapses.
New Mexico State is poor in both run and pass defense, which might allow La Tech to pile up points. However, the good run defense of the Bulldogs might limit the Aggies’ scoring opportunities. We’re going to go ahead and lean to the under here because of Louisiana Tech’s ability to dictate the pace of the game.
Strategic Game Plans
New Mexico State’s Path to an Upset
New Mexico State will have to win time of possession and control the game with their running attack if it wants to have a chance to pull an upset. Getting Seth McGowan and Mike Washington going early will keep Louisiana Tech’s high-powered offense on the sideline.
Most importantly, the defense of the Aggies has to force those turnovers, making good on Louisiana Tech’s occasional lapses in ball security. The Aggies had better stay away from third-and-long situations for their passing game is not their strong suit. Short and efficient drives will keep them in the game. Maybe home field and a huge second half could provide the impetus for an upset bid.
Louisiana Tech’s Plan to Dominate
Let Evan Bullock try to find Tru Edwards and Marlion Jackson against New Mexico State’s weak secondary. Louisiana Tech will have to stop McGowan on the ground to make the Aggies throw the ball.
Balance the offense so that New Mexico State can not get a handle on things. Bulldogs’ Defense should try to get after whichever quarterback, Parker Awad or Santino Marucci goes, as both have shown struggles under pressure. Quick starts and sustained drives will put New Mexico State in a hole. Louisiana Tech’s discipline on the road will be crucial.
Historical Context and Recent Form
Last season New Mexico State edged Louisiana Tech 27-24 in Ruston as the underdogs. However, they’ve not carried over the success of 2023, which featured a 10-win season but lost key personnel such as quarterback Diego Pavia.
Coach Sonny Cumbie’s Louisiana Tech is building up a head of steam after a humdinger against Middle Tennessee. New Mexico State has lost five, all coming in conference play. Included are blowout losses to Fresno State and Jacksonville State. Louisiana Tech’s four losses came against much better teams like NC State. Riding the wave of recent offensive success, the Bulldogs have the edge in this New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech prediction.
Linebacker Play:
Final Prediction
Louisiana Tech is going to win this one 31-17 so they will cover the -11.5 spread. The Bulldogs’ defense is superior and with an emerging passing game, it will be way too much for the struggling offense of New Mexico State to handle.
This game has a chance to finish under 49.5 because the Bulldogs’ run defense is good enough to limit the scoring opportunities of the Aggies. Home field and ground attack will make for some early semblance of a competition, although New Mexico State isn’t going to have nearly enough to tame Louisiana Tech behind Evan Bullock and this offensive raiding party. Bettors will want to watch for second-half trends as the Aggies often put together a rally late but come short.
FAQs:
What offensive scheme does New Mexico State use?
New Mexico State uses a balanced offensive scheme, mixing passing and rushing effectively, led by dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia.
Who is the key player in Louisiana Tech’s offense?
Smoke Harris is the key player, making significant plays in their pass-heavy offensive scheme.
How does Diego Pavia perform as a quarterback?
Diego Pavia has a 62% completion rate, over 1,800 passing yards, and excels in rushing, adding versatility to New Mexico State’s offense.
What is the main difference between the running games of the two teams?
New Mexico State focuses on power running, while Louisiana Tech relies on speed and agility.